Shoe Boy
My shoe shine boy told me to buy oil, is it time to get long?
My shoe shine boy this morning told me to buy oil, should I take his advice?
Well, I don´t personally think it is quite straight forward as every answer you have received so far, gives. Though I may agree with the Rockefeller story. Oil is obviously the main talking point and well it has been since December or last year when $100 per barrel was highly possible, indeed which it made in early January. The problem with the advice you have been given so far is that it fails to ignore one very basic element of standard economic understanding, the supply and demand issue. Supply is well known and highly documentated as decreasing. This due to political unrest and Opec decreasing output, is having an effect on supply. Also in one school of thinking, oil is believed to be reaching it´s maximum and depleting oil fields, particularly in the US, are starting to take their toll on supply too. We all know it is going to run out eventually, the question has always been when. It seems opec are starting to get scared it might be sooner rather than later so are looking for every last possible buck they can make before it goes completely.
The other factor is demand, which unless I live in a completely different world to those who have answered already, seems to be increasing. This slowing in supply and increasing in demand, always as far as economics is concerned has meant that the price of said product, in this case oil, always goes up. China and India are still quickly growing economies who are demanding more and more oil each day. The US still is the highest consumer and until the american opinion on biofuels, nuclear or more environmentally friendly forms of energy changes, they will still continually drive around in their 6 litre SUV´s drinking up the stuff as they go. As such on a very basic level, the price of oil will continue to increase in our present climate. Until we find something else to replace it with or the stock markets absolutely crash (which though possible is unlikely realistically to happen) then oil will continue to see good times ahead. That being said, the current state of world economics is still a bit precarious, though if you have a spare few pounds that you can afford to lose if the worst comes to the worst, oil is a fairly safe bet, even safer than houses. Though you have to think through the situation and the arguments for yourself, nobody else will and at the end of the day it is your money. Good luck.
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